No Connection Between Excess Death & Covid-19 Vaxxines

Lawrence Robinson
4 min readDec 21, 2022

In today’s Medium article I’ll be addressing the well-known falsehoods surrounding the claims of excess deaths supposedly connected to Covid-19 related vaccines. So without further ado, let’s get into the article.

➡️️ Context

Claims about excess mortality that have circulated online are suggesting vaccines are to blame. There’s no causal evidence for this hypothesis. We already know that Covid-19 can cause death up to 1 year post-infection [1], and Covid-19 is one of the main reasons.

Edit (with help from Dr Susan Oliver): One mistake laypersons do is that they don’t account for population increases and ageing populations when looking at excess deaths.

References: [1] https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2021.778434/full

➡️️ The Real Reasons for Excess Death

These claims stem from misinterpreted data that most AV laypersons do very easily, especially amongst vaccinated recipient data [1]. In the UK another reason for these excess deaths (alongside Covid) is the backlog within the NHS [2], especially as there are over 7 million patients still on the NHS waiting lists for consultant-led elective care.

  • Covid-19

Viral infection from Covid-19 still has long-term neurological effects [3], plus if you factor in an 11% mortality rate from viral myocarditis (aka myocarditis from viral infection) vs 1% mortality of vaccine-induced myocarditis [3], Covid-19 plays a massive part in these deaths. In the same study [4], there’s a 12% rate of heart failure with viral myocarditis vs a 1% rate of heart failure with vaccine-induced myocarditis.

Many Covid-19 deaths went under-reported as they went undetected in official reports from 2020 and 2021, because of limited testing capacity and misclassification of causes of death. In May 2022 a team of leading expert researchers led by the WHO and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs published results from their first attempt to estimate global Covid-19 mortality. A Nature journal study [5] presents these estimates in more detail. This shows the burden of Covid-19 under-reporting plays a major factor in the excess deaths.

  • Vaccination

Confirmed reports of death following vaccination are extremely rare [6], even when millions have been vaccinated against Covid-19, this is another huge reason that there is no causal evidence to suggest the excess deaths are associated with vaccination.

There is no and will be no causal evidence [7] [8] to associate vaccines with this false claim.

An article from GlobalPandemics [9] new analysis that in some states within the USA vaccination could have prevented a further 318,000 deaths, in addition to this, a modelling stud published in The Lancet [10] science journal estimated that 19.8million deaths from COVID-19 were averted.

Furthermore, in addition to the under-reporting of Covid-19 excess mortality, a study published by ERSJournal [11] suggests that official reports have significantly underestimated the actual number of deaths attributed to COVID-19. The conclusion to this study is very interesting as it further solidifies Covid-19’s total overall play in excess mortality:

“The increases in all-cause mortality preceded the increase in COVID-19 mortality in most countries that had definite spikes in COVID-19 mortality. The number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 was underestimated by at least 35%. Together these findings suggest that calculation of excess all-cause mortality is a better predictor of COVID-19 mortality than the reported rates, in those countries experiencing definite increases in mortality.”

In April 2022, published estimates [12] that nationally within the USA at least 234,000 deaths from COVID-19 between June 2021 and March 2022 could have been prevented with a primary series of vaccinations.

References: [1] https://www.factcheck.org/2021/11/scicheck-why-its-easy-to-misinterpret-numbers-of-deaths-among-the-vaccinated/
[2] https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/nhs-delivery-and-workforce/pressures/nhs-backlog-data-analysis
[3] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02001-z
[4] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0735109722071078?dgcid=author
[5] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05522-2
[6] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html
[7] https://www.newscientist.com/definition/causality/
[8] https://fullfact.org/health/sudden-deaths-connect-the-dots/
[9] https://globalepidemics.org/2022/05/13/new-analysis-shows-vaccines-could-have-prevented-318000-deaths/
[10} https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00320-6/fulltext
[11] https://openres.ersjournals.com/content/7/1/00766-2020
[12] https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/covid19-and-other-leading-causes-of-death-in-the-us/

➡️️ How to spot fake news

A brilliant article published by Simon Fraser University put together some amazing tools, infographics, and tips on how to spot fake news and misinformation, whilst not being suckered in by them [1]. A very good source to train yourself with if you’re in a grey area about a subject.

Reference: [1] https://www.lib.sfu.ca/help/research-assistance/fake-news

➡️️ Conclusion
There’s no causal association between Covid-19 vaccination and global excess mortality, moreover, it should be said that vaccines could have prevented most of these deaths from occurring in the first place

💥 Thanks for reading, Lawrence. Please consider a small contribution, in the form of a beer as all articles are created in my small amount of spare time: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/LawrenceRob

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Lawrence Robinson

Passionate about evidence-based scientific information and tackling falsehoods that thrive on social media.